Fundamental Trading Diary

Fundamental analysis of the capital markets

Marc Faber

Let’s examine Marc Faber’s recent history:

3/24 7:00 PM: “The US stock rally may have more legs”. The S&P 500 is +7.75% since. “We can go to around 880 on the S&P”. We’ve hit 875.63.

3/30 8:44 AM: “Rapidly growing countries have setbacks from time to time,” Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said in Hong Kong. “I think we’re going to test the lows again, but over the next two years, it’s probably a good time to invest.” EEM (Emerging Markets ETF) is +7% since.

4/4 12:23PM: “From here on, the government bond market will fall. In other words, the trend will be for interest rates to actually go up.” TBT (UltraShort bonds) is +3% since.

4/7 6:30AM: “Rally Will Go On, After a Correction” The S&P 500 fell -2.4% that day, and is +6.63% since.

4/7 6:30AM: “But I have been buying some banks here and there, for a trade. If I look at Citigroup, it dropped from 57 to 1 dollar. It is around 2.5 dollars now and can easily rebound to 5 dollars a share.” Citigroup is more than +45% since.

4/13 6:00PM: “You have essentially a government that gives financials free money at the expense of the taxpayer. With this free money, they may actually have decent earnings in the near future.” Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan (the largest US banks) all “surprised” on the upside.

4/17: “The market very near term has become somewhat overbought, and the correction should essentially follow, but I doubt it will go and make new lows in the intermediate future. The lows in early March at 666 in the S&P will hold, and we’ll have another push up into July.” We shall see…

He’s been knocking them out of the park.


April 18, 2009 - Posted by | Uncategorized

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